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Make or break for crypto: the total crypto market cap is rejecting at the 20-month moving average, the separator between bull and bear cycles, and October is closing red just as I’ve been anticipating since the end of September. In this video I look at the worst case scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). What happens if the speculative inverse head and shoulders fails and we don’t get the higher low for a right shoulder?
Bitcoin has closed below the 50-day moving average, with the 200-day sitting around $73,000 as the macro target. I compare the current RSI breakdown to March 2023, when Bitcoin fell to the 200-day before continuing higher. Then I use Ethereum’s failed right shoulder from 2024-2025 as a roadmap for what failure looks like, with the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci between roughly $1,800 and $2,000 and a full retest of the head near $1,500. Support is still in play, so I also cover the bullish path: a shallow right shoulder and Bitcoin testing $90K into December, all heading into a volatile FOMC week.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Total crypto market cap monthly
0:19 The red October call
0:42 The worst case scenario
1:29 September 25 Bitcoin clip
1:59 Bitcoin loses the 50-day
2:48 The 2023 fractal
3:44 RSI breakdown vs March 2023
4:44 The $73K 200-day target
5:24 Ethereum failure example
6:27 The failed right shoulder
7:47 ETH Fibonacci support
8:24 Comparing the two structures
9:13 Why I plan for worst case
10:26 Bullish path and FOMC week
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This channel focuses on macro crypto analysis, liquidity cycles, and market behavior to help long-term investors understand where we are in the broader financial cycle. I cover Bitcoin, crypto, and altcoins like ethereum, solana, cardano, sui, and more.
This content is for patient capital, not short-term speculation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above video references an opinion and is for news/information and entertainment purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice, financial advice, or any solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer that you buy or sell any cryptocurrency or securities. Trading in cryptocurrencies and securities is a high risk activity involving risk of loss so please seek a duly licensed professional for investment or financial advice. The information provided on this video should not be used to make any investment or financial decisions without consulting your financial or investment advisor. This video contains my opinion only and is not intended to cause harm or defame anyone or any entity.
