CCV Crypto Risk Models Trial – https://app.cryptocapitalventure.ai/risk-metric
Crypto prices are crashing and we get a much needed reminde that this is what even crypto bull markets are made of.
This crypto dip is what bull markets are made of. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 7% on the day and Ethereum (ETH) is printing big red daily candles, so I go back to the last real Bitcoin bull market to show how normal 15%, 17%, even 30% dips were on the way up. I revisit my September 29 call on a potential Ethereum rejection at the inverse head and shoulders neckline, and break down where Ethereum and altcoins like Ondo (ONDO), Sui (SUI), Cardano (ADA) and Midnight (NIGHT) sit in the cycle right now.
We cover the Bitcoin 50-week moving average near $77,000, the AI wallet-drain and new pandemic headlines lining up at this exact macro pivot, and the new CCV business cycle index, which just confirmed its first expansion signal after a contraction roughly double the length of 2008. In the CCVI risk models, Bitcoin is at a 26 risk score, a level where price was higher one year later 99% of the time. Ethereum is at a 29 (92%) and Ondo at a 30 (87%).
CHAPTERS
0:00 This dip is what bull markets are made of
0:37 The September 29 Ethereum call
1:28 Ethereum rejection at the neckline
2:40 Bitcoin dips in the last bull market
4:39 Why red candles are normal
5:20 Bitcoin 50-week moving average
6:47 AI and black swan headlines
8:07 CCVI Bitcoin risk at 26
9:16 CCV business cycle index
11:00 Ethereum multi-year accumulation range
14:11 Red October and a higher low
15:35 The story behind the inverse head and shoulders
17:21 Ethereum risk model and key levels
18:54 Ondo
21:20 Sui
22:49 Cardano
23:54 Midnight
25:02 Outro
