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Bitcoin is below $80K, and in this video I go through the one line I need to see Bitcoin hold this week: the 50-week moving average around $76,000. I start with the clip from September 23 where we talked about a potential right shoulder dip off the $84K neckline, and that’s what’s playing out now. I cover the higher low Fibonacci range for BTC around $64K to $69K, the bull case if Bitcoin holds $76K, and how the right shoulder could be shallow or deep.
I also look at Ethereum (ETH) on the weekly and six-hour charts, the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, and the bearish case down to the $1,800 to $2,000 area. Then I zoom out to the total crypto market cap monthly chart. The RSI shows bearish divergence going back to 2021, and the MACD is resetting the way it did after quantitative tightening ended in 2019. With FOMC and the elections coming up, expect volatility. A 20 to 26% dip is normal at the start of a bull market, and I think the business cycle is setting up for expansion.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Bitcoin falls below $80K
1:07 The $84K rejection playing out
1:37 Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average
2:28 Higher low target $64K to $69K
3:05 The two levels I’m watching
3:37 FOMC and the elections
4:21 Weeks of nothing, then days of moves
4:53 The bull case: holding $76K
6:22 Ethereum’s key moving averages
7:01 Ethereum six-hour structure
8:28 Ethereum’s bearish case
8:50 Why this dip is normal
9:47 Total crypto market cap monthly
10:31 RSI and five years of compression
11:09 MACD reset vs 2019
13:43 2026 as an accumulation range
